Inflation in Emerging Countries

Inflation rates have climbed further in low-income countries, triggering a new alarm for apparel buyers in Western countries, already confronted with a new wave of protectionism and the outbreak of the coronavirus.

 

Already hit by the impact of the coronavirus, the US additional tariffs (for US buyers), and the fall of the euro and the Sterling (for European buyers), clothing importers should also pay attention to the rising inflation rates in low-cost countries.

 

January data have confirmed the upward trend which had already been detected a month ago.In China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, and Vietnam, consumer prices have risen at a higher pace in January than in December, when they had already climbed. In Bangladesh, the inflation rate has stayed stable, by contrast.In China, prices have risen by 5.4% in January, after increasing by 4.5% in December from a year earlier.

 

It is impossible to estimate what will be the change in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) in February after retail sales will have been erased by the coronavirus crisis. No less worrying, the inflation rate has climbed further in Pakistan, reaching 13.07% in the first month of the year.

 

With the Pak. Rupee now stabilized, exporters may find it difficult to raise wages in line with the jump in the cost of living in the country. In Vietnam, the CPI has surged in two months only, from 3.5% to 6.4%.Wages have already been significantly raised in the past years, and rebound in inflation rates could make it more difficult to compete with low-cost countries like Bangladesh.

 




 

Inflation Rate in Emerging Countries: local currency terms

 

From the same month a year earlier

 

.

Country

.

Consumer Prices

 

Sep 19

Oct 19

Nov 19

Dec 19

Jan 20

 

vs Sep 18

vs Oct 18

vs Nov 18

vs Dec 18

vs Jan 19

 

.

.

.

.

.

.

 

Bangladesh孟加拉国

5.54

5.47

6.05

5.75

5.57

 

Brazil 巴西

2.89

2.54

3.27

4.31

4.19

 

Cambodia柬埔寨

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

 

China 中国

3.00

3.80

4.50

4.50

5.40

 

Colombia哥伦比亚

3.82

3.86

3.84

3.80

3.62

 

Egypt 埃及

4.80

3.10

3.60

7.10

7.20

 

India 印度

3.99

4.62

5.54

7.35

7.59

 

Indonesia 印尼

3.39

3.13

3.00

2.72

2.68

 

Mexico 墨西哥

3.00

3.02

2.97

2.83

3.24

 

Pakistan 巴基斯坦

12.55

11.08

12.30

12.42

13.07

 

Philippines菲律宾

0.90

0.80

1.30

2.50

2.90

 

Sri Lanka斯里兰卡

5.00

5.40

4.40

4.80

5.70

 

Thailand 泰国

0.32

0.11

0.21

0.87

1.05

 

Turkey土耳其

9.26

8.55

10.56

11.84

12.15

 

Vietnam越南

1.98

2.24

3.52

5.23

6.43

 

 

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